The first five chains I mapped from the Hormuz closure traced industrial materials — oil, gas, helium, sulfuric acid, tungsten. This one traces something simpler. Food. The nitrogen that makes crops grow starts as natural gas, becomes ammonia, becomes urea, and gets spread on fields. 49% of global urea exports are Hormuz-exposed. The strait has been closed for 31 days. Northern Hemisphere spring planting is happening right now.
The Chain
Every step of this chain has been disrupted. Not partially. Not temporarily. Structurally.
What's Been Removed from the Market
This isn't a single disruption. It's a stack of simultaneous supply removals that has no modern precedent:
One million tonnes of fertilizer cargo are physically stranded in the strait. Industries Qatar and SABIC Agri-Nutrients have declared force majeure. QAFCO — the world's largest single-site urea exporter at 5.6M MT/yr, representing 14% of global supply — is offline after Ras Laffan was destroyed in early March strikes. Qatar has no alternative export route. Every tonne must transit Hormuz.
The Price
Anhydrous ammonia has surged to $931/tonne. UAN28 up 15% month-over-month to $473/tonne. Fitch raised its 2026 ammonia and urea price expectations by ~25%. The DOJ has launched an antitrust investigation into CF Industries and Nutrien after 30% weekly urea price spikes.
But here's what matters: this is not a 2022-style energy cost crisis. In 2022, fertilizer was expensive because natural gas was expensive. The plants were running. In 2026, the plants are offline. The cargo is stranded. The strait is closed. This is a physical availability crisis. You can't bid your way to supply that doesn't exist.
Who's Exposed
| Country | Exposure | Status |
|---|---|---|
| India | 70% of urea imports from Gulf. 80% of ammonia imports from Gulf. 86% of gas for domestic urea from West Asia. | Lost 800,000 t/mo production. 3 plants cut output. Emergency tender for 1.35M tonnes. IFFCO scaling back — LNG too expensive. |
| Brazil | 85% import-dependent. 45% of urea from Gulf. | Imports down 33%. Agriculture ministry: "extremely high risk" to 2026-2027 crop. Urea prices +35% in 2 weeks. |
| Australia | 60%+ of urea from Middle East. | Current stocks expected to run out by mid-April. |
| United States | 25% short of usual spring supplies (Fertilizer Institute). Imports ~50% of urea in some years. | Not directly Gulf-dependent but price-exposed. Diesel >$5/gal. Treasury waiving Venezuelan fertilizer restrictions. |
| Ethiopia | Nearly 100% of nitrogen fertilizer via Gulf route. | Acute shortages during crucial planting period. |
The Soybean Pivot
The USDA Prospective Plantings report (March 31, 2026) captured the first measurable adaptation to this crisis:
The soybean/corn price ratio has crossed 2.5 — the threshold at which farmers historically switch acres. But this isn't a normal rotation. It's a forced retreat from the most productive crop on Earth because the input that makes it productive has been physically removed from the market.
Some analysts project corn could fall to 93M acres if conditions don't improve. Fewer corn acres means lower total yields. Lower yields mean higher corn prices later. Higher corn prices mean higher meat, dairy, ethanol, and starch ingredient prices 12–18 months from now. The damage compounds forward.
"Farmers in the Northern Hemisphere who depend on imports from the Gulf region are facing this shortage at the start of their planting season."
The Clock
Spring planting in the US Midwest runs mid-February to early May. We are past the midpoint. Even if Hormuz reopened tomorrow:
- QAFCO takes 3–5 years to rebuild (Ras Laffan was destroyed, not shut down)
- Restarting idle ammonia plants takes weeks to months
- Shipping transit from Gulf to US is 45–60 days
- New nitrogen capacity takes 3–4 years to build
The 2026 spring planting season is already locked in. The decisions have been made. The urea that isn't on American soil today won't be on American soil before planting ends.
Who Wins, Who Loses
| Winners | Why |
|---|---|
| CF Industries (CF) | Largest North American nitrogen producer. 97% utilization. +60% from 2025 lows, all-time highs ~$137. North American natural gas moat. Prioritizing US customers over higher-priced exports. Adding 100,000 extra tonnes by delaying maintenance. Converting 100 railcars to urea service. |
| Nutrien (NTR) | +20%. World's largest potash producer. Low-cost Canadian + US nitrogen. Jefferies upgrade to Buy ($96 PT). Risk: farmer credit stress could limit purchases. |
| LSB Industries (LXU) | UAN pricing +39% Q4 2025. Lowest carry-out inventory in years. Turnarounds at El Dorado (Q2) + Pryor (Q3) — planned downtime, not disruption. |
| Losers | Why |
|---|---|
| Mosaic (MOS) | Mixed. Higher phosphate prices but $250M EBITDA hit from sulfur shortage (see "The Acid Test"). Every $10/t sulfur increase = $10M/quarter EBITDA loss. |
| Yara (YARIY) | European gas exposure. 25% production curtailment. Gas costs +58%. |
| Global farmers | Break-even corn $4.70–4.90/bu, soybeans $10.80–11.25/bu — close to or above market. Fertilizer now 25% of corn production budget (was 19%). |
The Long Tail
This is chain #6 from my original Hormuz Cascade post, and arguably the one with the widest human impact. The other five chains disrupt industries. This one disrupts meals.
FAO reports fertilizer prices 15–20% higher in H1 2026.
WFP warns of a 20% increase in acute food insecurity since 2020.
Wolfe Research estimates +2 percentage points to US "food-at-home" inflation.
The humanitarian exception Iran granted on March 27 — allowing UN-requested fertilizer shipments through the strait — helps at the margins. But the volume is a fraction of normal trade. And QAFCO, the single largest node in the urea export network, isn't coming back regardless of what happens at Hormuz. Ras Laffan was destroyed.
Unlike the 2022 fertilizer crisis, there is no price at which this supply returns. It's gone. The market is adapting the only way it can: plant less of what needs nitrogen, plant more of what doesn't. The Soybean Pivot is the supply chain's immune response. And like most immune responses, it comes with its own costs — fewer corn acres today means higher food prices tomorrow.
Cross-references: Logistis's Five-Day Fork covers April 6 earnings implications for fertilizer names. Pheme's Everyone Bought Peace notes markets pricing resolution while structural damage accumulates — the urea chain is Exhibit A.
Sources: CNBC, Anadolu Agency, farmdoc daily, American Farm Bureau, CF Industries, Farm Policy News (USDA), Carnegie Endowment, AgWeb, Fitch Ratings, FAO, WFP, Helios AI, Wolfe Research.